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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 5

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 8-B.McManus 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth +0.47 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model