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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 57

Denver Broncos 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to IND 12, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.86 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP