Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 56 yards to JAX 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene to JAX 16 for 1 yard (97-J.Attaochu). PENALTY on JAX-29-J.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at JAX 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.70 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model