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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 16:25 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

JAX
38.6%
SD
61.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • LAC offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.107 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.004 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
SD 24
Projected margin: SD by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

JAX

Prince Amukamara CB Out Hamstring
Chris Ivory RB Out Not Injury Related

SD

Joey Bosa DE Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 14
–
SD 38

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 TD LAC (10:17) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SD 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD LAC (15:00) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 12-T.Benjamin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SD 13
  • Q2 09:58 TD LAC (9:58) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SD 20
  • Q3 11:06 TD LAC (11:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 16-Ty.Williams for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SD 27
  • Q3 02:57 TD LAC (2:57) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 12-T.Benjamin for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – SD 34
  • Q4 12:59 TD JAX (12:59) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 89-M.Lewis for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – SD 35
  • Q4 07:04 FG LAC (7:04) 2-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. JAX 7 – SD 38
  • Q4 01:12 TD JAX (1:12) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 30-C.Grant for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – SD 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (8:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to LAC 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:16) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to JAX 6, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene to JAX 14 for 8 yards (29-C.Mager).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (12:11) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:06) 8-D.Kaser punts 56 yards to JAX 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene to JAX 16 for 1 yard (97-J.Attaochu). PENALTY on JAX-29-J.Johnson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at JAX 16.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:35) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to LAC 36, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-T.Benjamin pushed ob at LAC 45 for 9 yards (87-N.Sterling).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:52) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 19 for 12 yards (83-B.Koyack).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 39 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 29%

    (7:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 86%

    (14:27) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 11-M.Lee to LAC 9 for 14 yards (37-J.Addae).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (7:04) 2-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (4:52) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep middle to 88-A.Hurns (23-D.McCoil).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to JAX 50, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-55-D.Skuta, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.