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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 35 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 2-J.Lambo 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model