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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to LAC 33, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model