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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 38 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to JAX 50, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-55-D.Skuta, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 37, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model