Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 80

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

(14:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to KC 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.27 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model