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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

KC
46.6%
HOU
53.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.202 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

KC 20
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

KC

Sam Barrington LB Out Hamstring
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Ankle
Parker Ehinger G Out Concussion
Jamaal Charles RB Doubtful Knee

HOU

Duane Brown T Out Knee
Brian Cushing LB Out Knee
Christian Covington DE Questionable Groin
Derek Newton T Questionable Knee
Jeff Allen G Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 12
–
HOU 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:08 TD HOU (8:08) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-M.Peters, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. KC 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 15:00 FG KC (15:00) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – HOU 7
  • Q2 04:19 FG HOU (4:19) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. KC 3 – HOU 10
  • Q2 01:24 FG HOU (1:24) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. KC 3 – HOU 13
  • Q4 15:00 FG KC (15:00) 5-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 6 – HOU 13
  • Q4 09:37 FG HOU (9:37) 8-N.Novak 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. KC 6 – HOU 16
  • Q4 07:38 FG KC (7:38) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 9 – HOU 16
  • Q4 03:00 FG HOU (3:00) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. (The Field Goal was deflected by #92.) KC 9 – HOU 19
  • Q4 00:52 FG KC (:52) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 12 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 62 yards to KC 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 36 for 16 yards (52-B.Peters).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to HOU 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 23 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to KC 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at HOU 34 for 32 yards (28-A.Blue).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%

    (15:00) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to KC 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 40%

    (7:09) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 26-L.Miller to KC 37 for 9 yards (51-F.Zombo).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (4:19) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (1:24) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (12:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 6 for -1 yards (10-T.Hill).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to KC 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill to KC 37 for 13 yards (34-T.Ervin; 41-J.Grimes). PENALTY on KC-88-R.Travis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 37.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to HOU 40, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 46 for 6 yards (10-T.Hill; 80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:34) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to KC 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill to KC 14 for 2 yards (53-M.Bullough).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to HOU 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 29 for 1 yard (14-D.Robinson).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 85%

    (15:00) 5-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%

    (9:37) 8-N.Novak 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (7:38) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 84%

    (3:00) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. (The Field Goal was deflected by #92.)

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (:52) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.