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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 46

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 26-L.Miller to KC 37 for 9 yards (51-F.Zombo).

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.04 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model