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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 14

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 8-N.Novak 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model