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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 6

Houston Texans 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 8-N.Novak 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.00 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 6, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP