4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 58

Houston Texans 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 9-S.Lechler punts 46 yards to KC 12, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill to KC 14 for 2 yards (53-M.Bullough).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model