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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 13

Houston Texans 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 8-N.Novak 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model