Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 82

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(1:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 48 yards to KC 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at HOU 34 for 32 yards (28-A.Blue).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.86 EP
73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model