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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-C.Santos 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -2.15 EP
KICK +0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model