Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 21

(11:44) 4-M.Darr punts 52 yards to NE 33, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 48 for 19 yards (42-S.Paysinger; 48-M.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.72 EP
56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 85, worth -5.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model