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Miami Dolphins

0-2 HC Adam Gase
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

2-0 HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

MIA
23.8%
NE
76.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (NE): +0.380 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.010 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 17 10–24
–
NE 26 19–33
Projected margin: NE by 9 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

MIA

Mike Pouncey C Out Hip
Jordan Cameron TE Questionable Thigh
Arian Foster RB Questionable Hamstring
Spencer Paysinger LB Questionable Biceps
Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Ankle
Mario Williams DE Questionable Concussion
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Hamstring

NE

Eric Rowe CB Out Ankle
Dont'a Hightower LB Doubtful Knee
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Shoulder
Malcolm Butler CB Questionable Ankle
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Knee
Jonathan Cooper G Questionable Foot
Trey Flowers DE Questionable Shoulder
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Hamstring
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Hand
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Shoulder
Nate Solder T Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 24
–
NE 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:02 TD NE (11:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-C.Jones]. MIA 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 06:27 TD NE (6:27) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 88-M.Bennett for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 13:14 TD NE (13:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 80-Amendola 1st multiple TD game of his career. MIA 0 – NE 20
  • Q2 02:52 FG NE (2:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. MIA 0 – NE 24
  • Q2 00:05 FG MIA (:05) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 3 – NE 24
  • Q3 08:46 TD NE (8:46) (Shotgun) 29-L.Blount right tackle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – NE 30
  • Q3 05:52 TD MIA (5:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 10-K.Stills for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-E.Roberts]. MIA 9 – NE 31
  • Q4 14:55 TD MIA (14:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 84-J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-91-J.Collins was injured during the play. MIA 16 – NE 31
  • Q4 06:10 TD MIA (6:10) 32-K.Drake right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – NE 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:42) 4-M.Darr punts 49 yards to NE 18, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 25 for 7 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (4:38) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:44) 4-M.Darr punts 52 yards to NE 33, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 48 for 19 yards (42-S.Paysinger; 48-M.Gray).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 29%

    (10:13) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 92%

    (2:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 36%

    (1:05) 6-R.Allen punts 30 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:18) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to MIA 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. PENALTY on MIA-28-B.McCain, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (1:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.78 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon [95-C.Long] at NE -9. Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →