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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 47

New England Patriots 21 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to MIA 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model