Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 59

New England Patriots 31 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to MIA 22, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. PENALTY on MIA-28-B.McCain, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model