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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 21

New England Patriots 31 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 3-S.Gostkowski 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model