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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 24 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon [95-C.Long] at NE -9. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.23 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.78 EP