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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 32

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(:41) E.Manuel in at QB (T.Taylor at WR). 3-E.Manuel up the middle to NYJ 30 for 2 yards (98-Ja.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.46 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model