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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Thursday 2016-09-15 · 20:25 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

NYJ
49.8%
BUF
50.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYJ offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): +0.124 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYJ

Bryce Petty QB Out right Shoulder
Jordan Jenkins LB Doubtful Calf
Darryl Roberts CB Doubtful Foot
Bruce Carter LB Questionable Shoulder
David Harris LB Questionable Shoulder
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

BUF

Colt Anderson S Out Foot
Cordy Glenn T Out Ankle
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Jim Dray TE Questionable Ankle
Cardale Jones QB Questionable right Shoulder
Kevon Seymour CB Questionable Hamstring
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot
Jerel Worthy DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 37
–
BUF 31

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:44 FG NYJ (6:44) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – BUF 0
  • Q1 05:26 TD BUF (5:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 88-M.Goodwin for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at NYJ 30. PENALTY on NYJ-91-S.Richardson, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYJ 3 – BUF 6
  • Q1 00:04 FG NYJ (:04) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 11:13 TD NYJ (11:13) 22-M.Forte up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – BUF 7
  • Q2 03:57 TD NYJ (3:57) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 87-E.Decker for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-Z.Brown]. Caught 7 yds. into end zone, crossing from right. NYJ 19 – BUF 7
  • Q2 00:10 FG BUF (:10) 2-D.Carpenter 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. NYJ 20 – BUF 10
  • Q3 14:22 TD BUF (14:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 11-G.Salas for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught near sideline at NYJ 31. NYJ 20 – BUF 16
  • Q3 11:28 TD BUF (11:28) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 89-J.Marshall to NYJ 35 for 2 yards (52-P.Brown). FUMBLES (52-P.Brown), RECOVERED by BUF-21-N.Robey-Coleman at NYJ 36. 21-N.Robey-Coleman for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 20 – BUF 23
  • Q3 02:17 TD NYJ (2:17) 22-M.Forte up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 26 – BUF 24
  • Q4 10:40 FG NYJ (10:40) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 30 – BUF 24
  • Q4 04:07 TD NYJ (4:07) 22-M.Forte left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 36 – BUF 24
  • Q4 01:22 TD BUF (1:22) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 35-M.Gillislee to NYJ 1 for 17 yards (21-M.Gilchrist). Dump pass, caught at NYJ 14. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 35-M.Gillislee for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Dump pass, caught at NYJ 14. NYJ 37 – BUF 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (6:44) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (:04) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to NYJ 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-50-R.Humber.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 67%

    (:41) E.Manuel in at QB (T.Taylor at WR). 3-E.Manuel up the middle to NYJ 30 for 2 yards (98-Ja.Jenkins).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 88%

    (:10) 2-D.Carpenter 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:42) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to BUF 25, Center-46-T.Purdum. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 33 for 8 yards (43-J.Howsare).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (8:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NYJ 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 91%

    (10:40) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 33%

    (7:11) 25-L.McCoy left guard to NYJ 45 for no gain (91-S.Richardson, 50-D.Lee). Measurement = ball surrendered on downs.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 50 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 22%

    (:18) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.