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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 72

New York Jets 20 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to BUF 25, Center-46-T.Purdum. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 33 for 8 yards (43-J.Howsare).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model