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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 24 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NYJ 16, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 89-J.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model