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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 50

New York Jets 37 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(:18) 4-L.Edwards punts 35 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 50, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 22% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model