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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 10

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 2-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 10, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model