Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 86

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(13:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to PHI 46, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.27 EP
74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 86, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model