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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Monday 2016-09-19 · 20:30 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

PHI
42.6%
CHI
57.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Carson Wentz (PHI): +0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 20
–
CHI 24
Projected margin: CHI by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

PHI

Zach Ertz TE Out Rib
Leodis McKelvin CB Out Hamstring

CHI

Kyle Fuller CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 29
–
CHI 14

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:15 FG PHI (6:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 11:19 TD CHI (11:19) 33-J.Langford left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – CHI 6
  • Q2 02:31 FG PHI (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 6 – CHI 7
  • Q2 00:08 FG PHI (:08) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 9 – CHI 7
  • Q3 00:59 TD PHI (:59) 24-R.Mathews right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 15 – CHI 7
  • Q3 00:36 TD PHI (:36) 64-M.Tobin reported in as eligible. 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 47-T.Burton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-74-J.Bullard, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 22 – CHI 7
  • Q4 10:41 TD PHI (10:41) 24-R.Mathews left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 28 – CHI 7
  • Q4 05:30 TD CHI (5:30) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 19-E.Royal for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 29 – CHI 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 20 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to PHI 46, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 79%

    (10:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-D.Green-Beckham to CHI 19 for 9 yards (29-H.Jones-Quartey).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (6:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 5 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (2:06) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 31 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:01) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 20 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (9:29) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to PHI 48, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-46-J.Dorenbos.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 51%

    (7:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to PHI 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (2:31) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (1:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to PHI 27, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 64%

    (:08) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 20 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:52) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to CHI 29, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 35%

    (9:44) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:35) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to PHI 22, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-58-J.Anderson. PENALTY on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (10:41) 24-R.Mathews left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (6:58) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.White (27-M.Jenkins) [98-C.Barwin].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 17 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 19-E.Royal for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-J.Matthews to CHI 19 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis).