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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model