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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 28

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 18-D.Green-Beckham to CHI 19 for 9 yards (29-H.Jones-Quartey).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model