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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 19-E.Royal for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 88, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 46, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model