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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 13

Chicago Bears 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 31 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model