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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model