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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-48-A.DePaola.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP