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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

TB
47.6%
ARI
52.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Carson Palmer (ARI) +0.185 vs Jameis Winston (TB) +0.174 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
ARI 26
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

TB

Devante Bond LB Questionable Hamstring
Lavonte David LB Questionable Shoulder
Ryan Smith S Questionable Hand
Adarius Taylor LB Questionable Knee
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Ankle

ARI

Kareem Martin LB Out Knee
Frostee Rucker DT Out Knee
Evan Mathis G Questionable Foot
J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Shoulder
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Ankle
Stepfan Taylor RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 7
–
ARI 40

Prediction missed by 31 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:59 TD ARI (14:59) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-24-B.Grimes, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. TB 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 11:48 FG ARI (11:48) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler. TB 0 – ARI 10
  • Q2 01:35 TD ARI (1:35) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 15-M.Floyd for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ARI 16
  • Q2 00:26 TD ARI (:26) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep left to 13-Ja.Brown for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – ARI 23
  • Q3 10:06 TD TB (10:06) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ARI 24
  • Q3 08:00 FG ARI (8:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler. TB 7 – ARI 27
  • Q3 05:15 TD ARI (5:15) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 34-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Cooper (97-J.Mauro) at ARI 40. 41-M.Cooper for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – ARI 33
  • Q4 12:15 TD ARI (12:15) 23-C.Johnson up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – ARI 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:20) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to TB 16, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries to TB 17 for 1 yard (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (8:58) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to TB 7, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries to TB 7 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:17) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to ARI 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 12-J.Brown pushed ob at ARI 33 for 7 yards (82-B.Myers).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (11:48) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 47%

    (7:41) 9-B.Anger punts 34 yards to ARI 9, Center-48-A.DePaola, downed by TB-48-A.DePaola.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:36) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to TB 32, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 49 for 17 yards. Arizona challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:23.)

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:13) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to ARI 26, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-J.Brown.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 88%

    (8:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (2:03) 19-R.Aguayo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:52) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:53) 2-D.Butler punts 46 yards to TB 31, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries to TB 35 for 4 yards (57-A.Okafor). PENALTY on TB-21-A.Verner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 31.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:44) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to ARI 18, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-J.Brown.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:56) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to TB 19, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:05) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ARI 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-J.Brown.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:18) 2-D.Butler punts 44 yards to TB 34, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at ARI 41 for 25 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 30%

    (:09) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger at ARI 0. Touchback.