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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to TB 16, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries to TB 17 for 1 yard (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model