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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 22

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model