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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 33

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 19-R.Aguayo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model