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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 40

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP