Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 40 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 2-D.Butler punts 46 yards to TB 31, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries to TB 35 for 4 yards (57-A.Okafor). PENALTY on TB-21-A.Verner, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TB 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model