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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 40 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 2-D.Butler punts 41 yards to TB 19, Center-86-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.91 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model