Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 40 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(1:18) 2-D.Butler punts 44 yards to TB 34, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at ARI 41 for 25 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.65 EP
48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model