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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 40

What Actually Happened

(:09) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Swearinger at ARI 0. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.08 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP