Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(5:17) 9-B.Anger punts 38 yards to ARI 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 12-J.Brown pushed ob at ARI 33 for 7 yards (82-B.Myers).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.42 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model