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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 0 – Detroit Lions 9

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 4-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.63 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 38, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model