4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
TEN Away

Tennessee Titans

1-1 HC Mike Mularkey
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

1-1 HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 13:00 ET Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

TEN
27.8%
DET
72.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): +0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18 11–25
–
DET 28 21–35
Projected margin: DET by 10 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

TEN

Derrick Morgan LB Out Hamstring
Kendall Wright WR Out Hamstring

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Doubtful Quadricep
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Shoulder
Adairius Barnes CB Questionable Ankle
Cole Wick TE Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 16
–
DET 15

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:20 SAF DET (7:20) 29-D.Murray right end tackled in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (98-D.Taylor). TEN 0 – DET 2
  • Q1 04:23 TD DET (4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 80-A.Boldin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – DET 8
  • Q2 12:08 FG TEN (12:08) 4-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – DET 9
  • Q2 01:09 FG DET (1:09) 5-M.Prater 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. TEN 3 – DET 12
  • Q3 01:44 FG DET (1:44) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. TEN 3 – DET 15
  • Q4 15:00 TD TEN (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 82-D.Walker for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – DET 15
  • Q4 01:19 TD TEN (1:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-A.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – DET 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 71%

    (8:02) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:28) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani. PENALTY on TEN-23-B.McCain, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 81%

    (12:08) 4-R.Succop 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 57%

    (7:36) 6-S.Martin punts 32 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-29-J.Bademosi.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:26) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to DET 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Roberts to DET 34 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:30) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 24 for 14 yards (50-T.Armbrister). PENALTY on TEN-23-B.McCain, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 12.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (1:44) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 37%

    (10:42) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to TEN 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (8:52) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to DET 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 36 for 13 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:15) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 19 for 9 yards (26-D.Carey). FUMBLES (26-D.Carey), ball out of bounds at TEN 17.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 81-A.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →