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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 39

Detroit Lions 9 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 6-S.Martin punts 32 yards to TEN 7, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-29-J.Bademosi.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP