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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 3 – Detroit Lions 12

What Actually Happened

(:26) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to DET 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Roberts to DET 34 for 10 yards (31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.37 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 32, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model